WASHINGTON (TND) — The consumer price index jumped 8.5% in March from 12 months earlier, according to the Labor Department — the biggest year-over-year increase since December 1981 and a larger increase than the 8.4% that analysts predicted.

Since March of last year, food costs are up 8.8%, electricity is up 11.1% and gasoline is up 48%, driven up by supply chain issues, consumer demand and disruptions to global food and energy markets worsened by Russia's war against Ukraine.

Month-to-month, the report showed inflation rose 1.2% from February to March, up from a 0.8% increase from January to February. The March inflation numbers captured the full surge in gasoline prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, which drew sanctions against Russia. High energy prices have led to higher transportation costs for the shipment of goods, the cost of which has fallen on the consumer.

I actually think it's still going to edge a little higher before it starts going down,” said professor of economics at Harvard University Kenneth Rogoff.

The latest inflation numbers solidify expectations of multiple rate hikes from the Federal Reserve in an attempt to tame inflation. The financial markets now foresee much steeper rate hikes this year than Fed officials had signaled as recently as last month.

“You need to raise interest rates,” said Rogoff to The National Desk’s Eugene Ramirez. “If they raise interest rates too fast and too much, we will have a very bad recession. On the other hand, if they don't raise them enough, this will continue.”

The expected fast pace of the Fed's rate increases will make loans more expensive for consumers and businesses. Some economists say they worry that the Fed has waited too long to begin raising rates and might end up acting too aggressively — but Rogoff said he thinks the Fed will “fall short.”

“The Fed will talk a tough game, but it won't raise interest rates enough to really bring it down anywhere near the 2% that they say they aspire to,” said Rogoff.

According to a Gallup poll, 1 in 5 Americans views inflation and fuel cost as the most important issue the U.S. is facing today.

This is a phenomenal inflation rate and wages have not gone up as much. People are absolutely losing from that end of it,” said Rogoff. “On the other hand, if they get a recession, because the Federal Reserve decides to aggressively squeeze the economy, that could be even worse. I don't think there's any short-term fix to this."

Rocketing inflation is posing a political threat to President Joe Biden and the Democratic party as they seek to keep control of Congress in November's midterm elections.

“I don't think there's anything more important than the economy most of the time and how people vote,” said Rogoff. “It'll be the number one issue: either the inflation or the recession if the Fed pushes too hard.”

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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